Why President Trump's Popularity Has Fallen in Upstate New York By Luke Perry
62 percent of Upstate New Yorker’s have an unfavorable view of President Donald Trump, per a new poll by the Siena College Research Institute, as 56 percent believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.
1 in 4 Upstate New Yorker’s think President Trump has done an “excellent” or “fair” job as president. 48 percent believe he has done a “poor” job.
Most Upstate New Yorker’s narrowly oppose impeaching and removing President Trump from office (51 percent to 47 percent), while strongly opposing his reelection. 62 percent prefer someone else to become president, while just 34 percent want Trump to be reelected.
Much has been made about how popular Trump was upstate in 2016. Less attention has been devoted to his growing unpopularity in office. Several factors help explain this.
1. Trump is no longer an unknown challenger running against Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump came to the presidency with no political experience. “Make America Great Again” resonated with conservatives and moderates in upstate rustbelt cites and rural communities.
Trump became an entertaining, cutting, and unapologetic voice for change, with a built-in fan base and sizable social media following. He benefited from eight years of Democratic control of the White House and the fact neither party had won three consecutive presidential terms in over two decades.
Upstate New Yorker’s knew Hillary Clinton well. She lost many upstate counties during her 2000 Senate election campaign, as Republican Rick Lazio won more total votes outside of New York City. Clinton did better upstate in 2006, aided by a difficult midterm election for Republicans, as Democrats regained control of the House after 12 years of GOP control.
Three years into his first term, Trump has acquired a highly scrutinized record of his own. He is being evaluated on who he is, not what he may become.
2. Trump is a historically unpopular president
President Trump ended his first year in office the most unpopular modern president at that point in time, much less popular than his recent Democratic and Republican predecessors.
After his second year, perceptions of President Trump were unprecedentedly polarized. There was a 79 point difference in approval between Republicans (87 percent) and Democrats (8 percent).
This is a problem considering that Trump will have to completely retain, if not expand, his coalition following a historically narrow 2016 election victory.
Trump finished his second year with 40 percent approval rating, once again. This contributed to Democrats retaking the House during the president’s first midterm and gaining three seats in New York, two upstate (NY-19 and NY-22).
3. Trump’s policy priorities have created tensions upstate
Unified Republican government failed to abolish the Affordable Care Act as promised in 2016. Making matters worse, the GOP bill, The American Healthcare Act, was very unpopular. Just a slim majority of Republicans supported it.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, Trump’s major legislative accomplishment, was funded, in part, by reducing the state and local tax deduction, the most widely used tax deduction statewide. This created problems for upstate House Republicans, some of whom opposed the legislation.
Trump’s aggressive use of tariffs have cost U.S. businesses billions of dollars, hurting upstate dairy farmers.
Dairy farmers were benefiting from increased exports to China until June of 2018, when they launched retaliatory tariffs, cutting dairy exports in half. In just a few months, the dairy industry cited a $1 billion loss in revenue, prompting the federal government to provide emergency federal subsidies.
Andrew Novakovic, Professor of Agricultural Economics at Cornell University, said “there was genuine understanding” that tariff policies “exacted a real cost” on Republicans who had been supportive of the president.
4. Strong macroeconomic indicators haven’t rejuvenated the rust-belt
For years upstate New York has lagged behind downstate, and the country at large, when it comes to economic growth. “Even a strong national economy doesn’t necessarily do much to benefit the struggling post-industrial areas that delivered votes for Trump,” Justin Sondel recently noted n City and State NY.
12 downstate counties were home to nearly 90 percent of new jobs gained statewide this decade. Some upstate regions, like the Southern Tier, lost private sector jobs. Even as the president receives strong national approval ratings for the economy, related policies have had a minimal impact on rust belt communities.
Making matters worse, the president, and like-minded upstate Republicans, typically blame New York state government for economic underdevelopment and population migration. Trump is even less popular upstate than the Democratic-controlled State Assembly and State Senate, and even Governor Andrew Cuomo.
5. Trump is the only president to encourage upstate New Yorker’s to leave
On several occasions, President Trump has encouraged upstate New Yorker’s to leave the region and find work elsewhere.
“When you have an area that just isn’t working like upper New York state,” Trump told the Wall Street Journal in 2017, “you can leave, it’s OK, don’t worry about your house.”
A year later, Trump spoke affectionately of upstate New Yorker’s, “those people are my voters” and “they’ve been treated very badly,” but said again, “if New York isn’t gonna treat them better, I would recommend they go to another state where they can get a great job.”
These comments were rebuked in bipartisan fashion by state and local elected officials, and exacerbate a widespread sense of frustration, marginalization and under-representation among many upstate New Yorkers, who cannot, or do not, want to leave.
Trump, a lifelong resident of New York, recently changed his primary residency to Florida.
Photo by CNN
Looking ahead, upstate New York leans right, but has many counties that swing both directions in presidential elections. The state is home to the fourth most “pivot counties;” counties who voted for Barack Obama and Donald Trump in the last three presidential elections. 17 of 18 of these counties are located upstate.
Trump’s upstate performance in 2020 will likely be diminished. The question is how much, and to what degree, that will impact upstate Congressional races. .
Over the past three years, upstate New York has become more like the rest of New York State and the country in terms of public opinion toward the president.
President Trump is unpopular. Most people want someone different, are divided on impeachment, and prefer replacing Trump through the ballot box than through impeachment.
Luke Perry (@PolSciLukePerry) is Professor of Government at Utica College
