NY-22 Minute: Why Claudia Tenney needs to broaden her appeal to win in 2020 By Luke Perry
No one could have foreseen the current dynamics of the NY-22 campaign. The rematch between Rep. Anthony Brindisi and Claudia Tenney unfolds amidst the COVID pandemic and an abrupt economic recession.
The most challenging vote for Brindisi, impeaching the president, has mostly faded from public consciousness as communities struggle with countless challenges surrounding health, unemployment, revenue loss, and the prospect of reopening schools.
News coverage of U.S. campaigns tends to be candidate-centered, focused on what candidates do and say. This is important, but larger empirical trends enable Political Scientists to make informed predictions about what might happen.
In House races, incumbency is by far the strongest predictor of victory. 93 percent of incumbents were reelected over the last 50 years.
As a result, anyone can make an informed prediction about who will win any Congressional race this fall, without any knowledge of who is running, where the district is, or what it is like. Over 9 out of 10 times, predicting the incumbent will win proves true, which are tremendously good odds.
Photo from WKTV
This trend persists even when the House swiftly shifts control, including the 2018 midterm. Democrats flipped 41 seats and secured 53 percent of the vote nationally, 8 points more than Republicans.
Incumbency advantage was as strong as ever. 379 races included an incumbent, just 30 of whom lost (8 percent).
Claudia Tenney was among that minority, all the more extraordinary, given NY-22 is has an R+6 partisan voting rating, per the Cook Political Report.
Tenney has again tightly aligned her campaign with Donald Trump, who won 54 percent of the NY-22 vote in 2016. Trump outperformed Tenney by 8 points, helping to explain her strategy, which fell short in 2018.
Trump also bested Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign by 5 points in NY-22, while Hillary Clinton fell 10 points shy of Barack Obama. Such a favorable break is unlikely for Trump this cycle.
Many moderate Republicans were unwilling to vote for the former U.S. Senator from New York in 2016, while Trump is no longer a novice political figure onto whom people can project their hopes.
President Trump cannot, and is not, running on whether people are better off than four years ago with over 4 million confirmed cases of COVID and 17 million people out of work. The president’s popularity has steadily fallen throughout upstate New York over the last three years.
Incumbent Rep. Brindisi has secured federal resources on behalf of the district and helped constituents navigate relief efforts, prompting media attention and bolstering his ability to raise money.
Photo from City and State NY
Under normal circumstances, priming the partisan pump may work for the Republican candidate in NY-22. Under the current circumstances, it narrows the path to victory.
Enthusiastic Trump supporters are loyal to Tenney. Fueling them with constant partisan barbs towards liberals via Tenney’s social media operation is unnecessary and potentially counterproductive.
Independents and moderates are not enticed by attacks on Joe Biden and Rep. Brindisi. They are less ideological, familiar with Brindisi, whether they always agree with him or not, and do not feel threatened by the prospect of a Biden presidency.
Casting a wider net would help deliver hold-your-nose Trump voters, about one third of Republicans in NY-22. If they stay home, or cross party lines, Tenney may fall short again.
Luke Perry (@PolSciLukePerry) is Professor of Government at Utica College
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