NY-22 Minute: Why Claudia Tenney is the presumed winner in NY-22 By Luke Perry
Claudia Tenney leads Rep. Anthony Brindisi by 28,422 votes following early voting and election-day voting in NY-22. Tenney has an 11-point lead, 53.3 percent to 42.4 percent, 139,883 to 111,461.
70,160 absentee ballots were distributed in NY-22. 51,970 have been returned. These numbers do not include Chenango County, who is grappling with a ransomware attack. Absentee ballots appear to favor Brindisi. 23,917 ballots were returned by Democrats compared to 15,549 by Republicans.
On Tuesday, Brindisi said “we’re in for a long night and likely a long couple of weeks,” given the time it took to count absentee ballots in 2018. Tenney believes she will prevail because of the disproportionately high percentage of absentee votes necessary for Brindisi to win, likely over 80 percent.
Brindisi was one of three newly elected Democratic House Representatives from New York in 2018, along with Rep. Antonio Delgado (NY-19) and Rep. Max Rose (NY-11). Delgado is the only one likely to be re-elected. Rose trails Nicole Malliotakis by 37,158 votes.
Photo by WKTV
At the moment, Tenney has improved upon her 2018 showing in all eight counties in NY-22. The path to victory in NY-22 starts with Oneida County, the most populated in the district and home to both candidates. Tenney is ahead by 9,426 votes, where Brindisi won by 1,923 votes in 2018.
Equally significant is Broome County, the second most populated county, and Democratic stronghold. Brindisi is up by 3,257 votes after winning Broome by 9,235 votes in 2018. Cutting Brindisi’s advantage here by one-half, or even one-third, would constitute a major development in this race.
Margins are likely to tighten following the counting of absentee ballots, but Tenney’s strong showing in the six rural counties in the district are positioned to buttress this.
For example, Herkimer, Chenango, and Oswego counties are the among most Republican in the district. In 2018, Brindisi effectively kept the margins down to 2,000 to 4,000 votes, respectively. Tenney is currently ahead by 4,000 to 7,000 votes in each. Again, these may tighten, though there are likely less ballots and less of an advantage for Brindisi.
The comprehensive nature of Tenney’s strong position makes it very difficult for Brindisi to recover. If successful, Tenney would return to Congress, where she served in 2017 and 2018, under unified Republican government.
In 2021, Tenney will probably be without President Trump, who helped elevate her to office in 2016, and contributed to her downfall in 2018. Tenney will also find herself in the minority. Such a position will make it very difficult to influence legislation, but provide plenty to rally against.
Luke Perry (@PolSciLukePerry) is Professor of Political Science at Utica College
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