NY-22 Minute: Claudia Tenney will run on her record in challenging Rep. Brindisi By Luke Perry
Claudia Tenney is far ahead in the NY-22 Republican primary, with absentee ballots still being counted, prompting George Phillips to concede. Tenney won 70 percent of the votes tallied on election night, compared to Phillips’ 30 percent.
“It’s tough to run a campaign in this environment,” Tenney told Talk of the Town (WUTQ in Utica). The former Congresswoman was pleased with her numbers throughout the district, netting at or around 80 percent of the vote in many counties, and competing with Phillips in his native Broome County.
“I am sad that election night results did not go our way but most grateful to all of our supporters. There were over 15,000 absentee ballot requests in our district. Our team worked these absentee ballots extremely hard and I am confident that we will make up votes but I am afraid it will not be enough. I wish Claudia Tenney the best and success as Republicans try to take back the House of Representatives in the fall.”
Looking to the general election, Tenney feels there “is a lot more support for me as a challenger now than as an incumbent in 2018.” Tenney is also optimistic about the political headwinds this cycle.
Tenney believes the president’s party tends to turn out in larger numbers during presidential election years. Tenney said that approximately 25,000 to 30,000 more NY-22 voters participated in presidential elections than midterms over the last 20 to 30 years.
The boundaries of NY-22 were redistricted following the 2010 election, creating a small sample size for the current district, and one germane comparison, 2014 to 2016. 120,714 more people voted in the 2016 presidential election compared to the 2014 primary, per the New York State Board of Elections.
Turnout in the last midterm (250,957), when Rep. Anthony Brindisi was elected, was much higher than 2014 (175,372). Unprecedented grassroots liberal activism and President Trump’s first midterm were two factors that help explain this.
Photo from the House of Representatives
Increased voting-by-mail bolstered turnout in this year’s Central New York Congressional primaries, such as NY-24, as well as recent school board elections. It is reasonable to anticipate higher-than-normal turnout in November. The key question is who this will help, Tenney or Brindisi.
Voting-by-mail does not provide a clear advantage for one party over the other. There are several variables that help explain who is likely to vote, including education, age, and residential stability. External forces, such as elevated partisan competition and effective mobilization efforts, are also impactful.
“Who knows this year” what will happen, Tenney said, given the coronavirus pandemic.
Tenney plans to run on her record in Congress (2017-18) over the next four months. “People are starting to realize we did get a lot of accomplished,” Tenney explained. “We did create this phenomenal economy with the work we did in Congress. We did so much.”
Tenney believes that people didn’t realize this during the 2018 campaign “because they were focused on side issues, that were actually not true, like Spectrum, or whatever it might have been, that kind of distracted everyone and we didn’t successfully pull them away from that distraction.”
Photo from Rep. Brindisi
Brindisi responded to Tenney’s victory on Twitter. Brindisi said voters have a choice in November between his record of “getting things done for Upstate, protecting people with preexisting conditions, and standing up to big money Washington insiders. Or this . . .” and provided a 2018 Auburn Pub article entitled “Tenney claimed many murderers are Democrats. And then accused the media of politicizing tragedies.”
The NY-22 contest will be among the most competitive House races this cycle. It will also likely be the last with the current configuration of the district, as New York is expected to lose at least one House seat following this year’s U.S. census, prompting redistricting.
Luke Perry (@PolSciLukePerry) is Professor of Government at Utica College
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