Oct 7

Oct 7 President Trump’s impact on Central New York Congressional races By Luke Perry

2020 Campaign

The 2020 presidential election will affect down ballot races around the country, including Congressional elections in Central New York. NY-22 and NY-24 are two nationally competitive, neighboring Congressional districts, one held by Democrat Anthony Brindisi, the other by Republican John Katko.

This week the Siena Research Institute released its first poll on either district, the only public data available thus far. Rep. Katko and Democratic challenger Dana Balter are virtually even. Balter holds a 45 percent to 42 percent lead with a 5 point margin of error.

NY-24 is comprised of Wayne, Cayuga, and Onondaga counties, and part of Oswego County. Katko is serving his third term, prevailing through both Democratic and Republican administrations. Katko won twice by nearly twenty points. Balter narrowed the margin to 5 points last cycle.

My last book, Donald Trump and the 2018 Battle for Central New York, examined how local Republican House incumbents sought to navigate President Trump’s first midterm. Katko held NY-24, despite Hillary Clinton winning his district in 2016, and Democrats slightly outnumbering Republicans. Katko emerged as the sole Republican victor in the region, as Claudia Tenney (NY-22) and John Faso (NY-19) lost, thanks to higher favorability ratings, greater electoral experience, and an effective strategy for aligning and distancing himself from President Trump.

Katko defined himself as an independent representative of the district. He supported Trump 90 percent of the time on legislation, but did not vote for him in 2016, and differed with him in select areas, such as Russian electoral inference.

Unlike 2016, Katko endorsed Trump this June, in part to secure the Conservative Party endorsement. This ballot line netted Katko nearly 17,000 votes, exponentially more than any other third party in the race.

This week’s poll illustrated the impact of the presidential election on local Congressional races. Consistent with my previous research, the data suggests that President Trump is energizing and dividing the Republican Party, presenting challenges for local GOP candidates.

Voters are not pleased with the direction of the country. 60 percent of NY-24 voters think the country is headed in the wrong direction. Republicans are evenly divided about whether the country is on the right track or wrong track (42 percent each). This is atypical under a Republican president and GOP-controlled Senate.

Voters have much more favorable views of Joe Biden (+13 favorability) than Donald Trump (-25) and both Congressional candidates, Katko (-10), and Balter (-10). Neither Democrats, nor Republicans, are enthusiastic about Biden, but people generally like him.

1 in 4 Republicans view Biden favorably, along with 83 percent of Democrats, and 50 percent of Independents, most of whom think the country is headed in the wrong direction. Katko’s favorability was 48 percent (+9) prior to Election Day 2018, illustrating a 19 point negative swing.

Republican voters are divided about President Trump. Two-thirds of Republicans view Trump favorably and will vote for him. 30 percent of Republicans view Trump unfavorably. 23 percent will vote for Biden. Partisan support for a sitting president is usually much stronger, over 90 percent, creating problems for Republicans. Partisanship is the single biggest indicator of who people vote for.

John Katko clearly faces the most difficult reelection race of his career. More broadly, the Siena poll raises questions about Trump’s electoral influence throughout our region, including NY-22, which is more Republican than NY-24, and NY-19, which is more Democratic. Both were key Democratic pick-ups in 2018. If forthcoming polling is similar, this will be difficult to change.

Luke Perry (@PolSciLukePerry) is Professor of Political Science at Utica College and Director of the Utica College Center of Public Affairs and Election Research.