Sep 1

Sep 1 Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by 6 points following conventions By John Zogby

A new poll of 1007 likely voters taken two days after the Republican National Convention reveals that former Vice President Joe Biden now leads President Donald Trump 48% to 42%, with 10% undecided. The nationwide online poll was conducted on August 29, 2020, by John Zogby Strategies and EMI Research Solutions and has a margin-of-sampling error of +/- 3.2 percentage points for overall results.

With Libertarian Party nominee Jo Jorgensen and Green Party’s Howie Hawkins added in, Biden slips to a 45%-42% lead, with 3% selecting Jorgensen and 2% preferring Hawkins. Hawkins appears to be grabbing 3 points from Democrats and 5 points from Hispanics. Jorgensen receives 7% from independent/unaffiliated voters and 4% from 18-29-year-olds.

The new poll of the 2-way alone shows Biden and Trump scoring what they need to achieve within their own parties – Biden 90%-7% among Democrats, Trump 87%-7% among Republicans – and Biden with only a 4-point lead among independent/unaffiliated voters, 41%-37%.

While Trump leads 50%-38% with white voters, Biden appears to be in good shape with Hispanics 68%-26%. Following the RNC, the John Zogby Strategies/EMI Research Solutions Poll has some potentially troubling news for the former VP: Trump is polling 20% among Blacks to Biden’s 75% with 5% undecided.

The two candidates are tied among men (46% Trump, 45% Biden), but the gender gap lives with Biden leading among women 51%-39%. Biden holds double-digit leads among voters in cities (59%-33%) and suburbs (51%-41%) – but Trump dominates in rural areas by 27 points, 57%-30%).

This poll reveals no so-called “enthusiasm gap” with a total of 94% of Biden supporters saying their vote is solid (60% definite and 34% very strong and not likely to change), and 89% of Trump supporters expressing the same sentiment (56% definite, 33% very strong and not likely to change).

Nonetheless, a small plurality of voters – 43% to 40% — believes Trump will win. That includes 80% of Republicans, 13% of Democrats, and 37% of independents/unaffiliated. Two in three Democrats (66%) say they will “accept the results of the election if Trump wins) and 70% of Republicans say they will do the same if Biden wins. But 20% of Democrats will not accept a Trump victory nor will 18% of Republicans accept a Biden victory.

John Zogby (@TheJohnZogby) is the founder of the Zogby Poll and Zogby companies, including John Zogby Strategies, and author of We Are Many We Are One: Neo-Tribes and Tribal Analytics in the 21st Century America.