Biden Leads Trump 49%-47% in new John Zogby Strategies/EMI Research Solutions poll taken after President checks into Walter Reed By John Zogby
In a new poll of 1006 likely voters nationwide, former Vice-President Joe Biden holds on to a two-point lead over President Donald Trump, 49% to 47% with 4% not sure. The random sample online poll was taken on Friday beginning after 7 PM and has an overall margin-of-sampling error of +/-3.2 percentage points.
Our July 8th poll showed Biden leading Trump 49% to 42% and the previous poll released on August 29th had Biden leading by six points (48% to 42%).
The former VP is leading among Democrats 91%-8%, voters 18-29 years of age (60%-35%) and those 30-49 (50%-45%), as well as among women (56%-41%), Progressives (85%-15%), Liberals (85%-14%) and Moderates (58%-36%). He also leads among Hispanics is 61%-34% and Blacks (87%-11%).
The President, who was hospitalized before the poll was launched, leads among fellow Republicans (94%-6%), voters 50-64 (53%-45%) and those over 65 (50%-47%). As of now, Mr. Trump is capturing a slight majority of Catholic voters (51%-46%), Evangelicals (68%-32%), Conservatives (78%-18%), and Very Conservative voters (92%-8%). He also is ahead among Whites (56%-40%) and parents of children under 17 living at home (54%-40%).
The two candidates are tied among Independents at 44% each with 12% undecided. In a 4-way test including two prominent third-party candidates, Mr. Biden leads 47%-45%, with 2% each for Dr. Jo Jorgensen of the Libertarian Party and Green nominee Howie Hawkins.
Photo from WKTV
Contrary to my own observations, it looks like the President has not been hurt by his debate performance nor his hospitalization. His 47% performance is actually one point higher than his vote percentage in 2016. For now, he appears to have consolidated his base of Whites, parents, conservatives, men, and his own party’s voters.
Joe Biden looks as if he is on his way to doing the same with his base. His numbers among Hispanics are respectable but not quite at the 66%-67% he really needs. The same with Blacks. His 86% is better than our last poll but he needs to hit 90%, especially in those key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Georgia. His 60%-35% lead among young voters is about where he needs to be. He is going to have to get his position on climate change out better through all the noise.
Our last poll had Mr. Biden leading strongly among independents but now the two candidates are tied with 12% still undecided. It is important to note that since 2000 the Presidential races have had a see-saw quality and this may continue to play out for the remaining month. This poll shows that the potential for a “red to blue shift” could be very real. With Trump winning the count on Election day, and Biden’s mail-ins coming in after the election.
John Zogby (@TheJohnZogby) is the founder of the Zogby Poll and Zogby companies, including John Zogby Strategies, and author of We Are Many We Are One: Neo-Tribes and Tribal Analytics in the 21st Century America.
