How Trump might win in 2020 By Luke Perry
Joe Biden is currently the presidential favorite, but there are several reasons why the race may be closer than it seems.
Trump may be doing better than most polling indicates.
National polling by John Zogby Strategies has the racer closer than most with Biden up two points nationally, 49 percent to 47 percent (3.2 point margin of error). Anticipated turnout is one factor that helps explain this difference.
Zogby’s sampling consisted of 38 percent Democrats, 34 percent Republicans. Other polls, such as the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, consisted of 45 percent Democrats, 36 percent Republicans.
The Zogby poll also found a tie with independents and 12 percent of voters undecided. Other national polls, such as The New York Times/Siena poll, found Biden up 18 points with independents and undecided voters comprising around 5 percent of the electorate.
Biden is not matching Barack Obama’s level of support among minority voters.
Biden is going to win black and Latino voters, though the margins matter. Zogby contends Biden is shy of hitting needed targets, over 65 percent support from Latino voters, and over 90 percent from black voters.
Hillary Clinton won 65 percent of Latino voters and 88 percent of black voters in 2016. Each was five points short of President Obama’s 2012 victory.
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The race may tighten in the final weeks.
Biden was ahead by 10 points this week, 52 percent 42 percent, per average national polling. Clinton held a 6-point lead over Trump on October 25, 2016, 45 percent to 39 percent.
Clinton’s lead narrowed to 4 points by Election Day. Late deciders broke Trump’s way for a 17-point advantage. This race could tighten, particularly if Republicans consolidate around Trump, and if independents and/or undecided voters break his way.
Trump has multiple paths to an Electoral College victory.
Trump’s campaign manager Bill Stepien believes the president’s path to victory starts with winning four states, Florida, Ohio, Georgia, and Iowa, plus Maine’s Second Congressional district. (Maine and Nebraska are the only two states who divide their Electoral College votes by Congressional district.)
All five are competitive, polling within the margin of error. Stepien identifies three subsequent tracks to securing 270 Electoral College votes.
The first two involve Trump wining Arizona and North Carolina, which typically go Republican, and either Pennsylvania or Michigan, where he is trailing beyond the polling margin of error.
The president has a better chance in Pennsylvania than Michigan. Suburban voters will be key. Suburbs swung left under President Obama and helped Democrats retake the House in 2018.
Michigan was Trump’s narrowest margin of victory in 2016 (10,704 votes). History, enthusiasm, and money favor Biden. The Trump campaign recently cut Midwestern ad buys to focus on the Sun Belt, a sign of a depleted fundraising advantage and reconfigured priorities.
Stepien’s final track (Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina) is a long shot. Trump can win North Carolina, but securing the other two states will be very difficult. Biden has a steady lead in Nevada, which is less of a swing state than previous cycles.
Electoral predictions are harder than normal this year.
Predicting human behavior is hard under typical circumstances. Few things are normal this cycle, limiting the confidence of any electoral forecast. President Trump has a path to reelection, though it is rocky and uncertain.
Luke Perry (@PolSciLukePerry) is Professor of Political Science at Utica College and Director of the Utica College Center of Public Affairs and Election Research.
