Jul 15

Jul 15 Biden leads Trump 49%-42% in new nationwide polling By John Zogby

A new poll of 1,000 likely voters nationwide shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 7 points — 49%-42%, with 9% still undecided. The same effort by the John Zogby Strategies and EMI Research Solutions had Biden leading by 13 points in late May, 54%-41%.

The online survey reveals that both men are nailing down their own party’s support with Biden leading among Democrats 90%-6% and Trump ahead among Republicans 89%-7%.

The difference is among independent/non-aligned voters who give Biden an 11 point advantage 45%-34%, with 21% undecided. Biden also scores well among Progressives (79%-17%), Liberals (79%12%), and Moderates 57%-31%). However yields 26% support for Biden among Conservatives (69% would vote for Trump) and 16% of Very Conservatives (Trump gets 83%).

While white voters continue to support the President by 10 points (51%-41%), Biden appears about where he needs to be among Hispanics (65%-27%). A possible sign of concern for Biden is that only 77% of blacks are ready to vote for him while 14% say they would vote for Trump — and 9% are still not sure.

Biden is also where he needs to be among 18-29 year olds (60%-26%) but not among 30-49 year olds (tied at 45%). Those 50-64 back Biden 51%-45% and voters 65 and older are tied. Biden leads among both men (47%-44%) and women (51%-41%).

This is a healthy lead for Biden at this point but he has lost 6 points in advantage in the past few weeks. He previously had a 10 point lead among voters over 65 and this seems to have dissipated. The gender gap, once huge, is now about average.

And in a significant troubling sign he leads among “Weekly Dollar Store Shoppers by only 4 points — 48%-44%. His lead among those who never shop at a Dollar Store is 63%-27%. If this is creeping elitism in Democratic support, it needs to be squashed.

Up to now, the Biden campaign has played it right — very low key, watch the other guy run against himself and implode. I think he can sustain this for another few weeks as both the economy and the virus spin out of control and hurt the President.

But Biden then needs to come out punching in early August, through the virtual convention in mid-August. First significant event: the very important choice of a running mate. The whole world is watching and this certainly argues for the selection of an African American woman. These numbers among blacks are dismal.

John Zogby (@TheJohnZogby) is the founder of the Zogby Poll and Zogby companies, including John Zogby Strategies, and author of We Are Many We Are One: Neo-Tribes and Tribal Analytics in the 21st Century America.