Rethinking Joe Biden’s ‘Resurgence' in the 2020 primary By Peter K. Enns and Jonathon P. Schuldt
Conventional understandings of Joe Biden’s 2020 primary victory suggest Biden experienced a comeback after performing poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire. Our polling indicated that Biden’s “resurgence” was more a product of his preexisting nation-wide support and the order of state caucuses and primaries.
More than two months before the 2018 Midterm Election, we conducted a national survey of more than 1,000 likely voters. Most of our questions related to the upcoming Midterm Election and political and social issues at the time. But we were also interested in the candidates that likely voters wanted to see in the 2020 presidential race. So we asked, “Now thinking ahead to the 2020 presidential election, which one person would you most like to see run for president on the Democratic ticket?” The next question asked, “How about the Republican presidential ticket?”
Photo from President Joe Biden
Often surveys provide a list of potential names and ask respondents to choose from among them. Our respondents, however, could name anyone. This provided an unfiltered indication of their most-preferred candidate more than two years before the presidential election.
Among Democrats, Joe Biden was the clear favorite (21.7%). Bernie Sanders, the next most-named candidate, earned less than half of Biden’s mentions (10.6%). From this perspective, Biden should have been viewed as the favorite from the outset. If so, his poor early performances in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada may have had more to do with the peculiarities of these states. Iowa and New Hampshire, for example, are among the least racially diverse states in the country— 45th and 47th, respectively. Buttigieg may have benefited from his home state of Indiana’s proximity to Iowa and Sanders may have benefited from his home state of Vermont’s proximity to New Hampshire. The caucus systems of Iowa and Nevada may have also produced unique effects.
This is an excerpt from “Rethinking Joe Biden’s ‘Resurgence’” in The 2020 Democratic Primary (Palgrave, 2021). Full chapter available here.
Similarly, Biden’s “surge” in South Carolina and on Super Tuesday may have simply reflected the representativeness of these states. Recall that our results were based on a national sample of likely voters. Thus, we would expect that as states more closely represent the national population, they would most closely align with our results. To evaluate this hypothesis, we conducted an additional analysis dividing our respondents by state.
When we analyze who respondents in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada most wanted to see on the Democratic ticket, Sanders was named more often than Biden. However, when we analyze respondents from South Carolina plus the 14 Super Tuesday states, Biden was named more often. In other words, our survey results align with the actual outcomes in those contests. It is important to note that particularly for Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, these analyses are based on relatively small sample sizes. But the patterns do not support the Biden resurgence narrative.
More than a year before the Iowa Caucuses, Biden’s support was much higher in South Carolina and the Super Tuesday States than in the states with the first three contests. Biden’s apparent “resurgence” may be more accurately seen as reflecting the order of the state caucuses and primaries combined with his pre-existing nation-wide high levels of support.
Peter K. Enns is Professor of Government at Cornell University and Director of the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research
Jonathon P. Schuldt is Associate Professor of Communication at Cornell University
