Will Iowa remain atop the 2024 primary calendar? By Andrew Green and Kurt Sernett
The Utica College Center for Public Affairs and Election Research partners with Palgrave-MacMillan to produce the book series Palgrave Studies in U.S. Elections. The series recently published a new book The 2020 Democratic Primary: Key Developments, Dynamics, and Lessons for 2024. The following is an excerpt from Chapter Two.
On February 3, 2020, Iowans from all corners of the Hawkeye State participated in Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses. While turnout was lower on the Republican side as a result of President Donald Trump running for reelection, tens of thousands of Iowa Democrats gathered in churches, schools, and community centers across the state to support their favorite candidate(s) in the Democratic presidential field. Ultimately, Pete Buttigieg, the former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, was declared as the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic Caucus with Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) coming in a close second.
While many caucus-goers walked away from their caucusing sites extremely happy about how the process had been run and excited to see the statewide results coming later in the evening, technological reporting failures prevented the Iowa Democratic Party (IDP) from releasing the results in an efficient and accurate manner. In fact, the final results were not formally announced until February 27, 2020, 24 days later than the IDP had planned. Before the caucus chaos of 2020, there were already calls for the national Democratic Party to reshuffle the first few states in its nominating process; and therefore, the technological failures of this year’s caucus cycle only served to legitimize these reform efforts further.
Iowa Caucus 2008 Iwikipedia)
Since 1972, the Iowa Caucuses have been the first stop in the nominating process for presidential hopefuls of both parties. Candidates spend months, if not years, crisscrossing the state. They meet with voters and attempt to secure “elite” support across all of Iowa’s 99 counties, which is an important element of the “invisible primary” in demonstrating that the candidate is “viable” during the primary phase and “electable” during the general election. Spending time in the state during the caucus campaign season also helps candidates to cultivate votes in the state.
While Iowa has never been viewed as a “kingmaker,” the results of the Iowa Caucuses have served to narrow the field of candidates in the handful of primaries to come. Research indicates that a good performance in the Iowa Caucuses can help to build momentum for future primary contests. The American news media often rewards strong performers in the Iowa Caucuses with further campaign coverage which can shape the preferences of voters in subsequent primary contests.
In examining the 2020 Iowa Caucuses, we first begin with a description of what happened on caucus night and in the weeks to follow, including a discussion of the caucus reforms implemented by IDP in the leadup to the 2020 Iowa Caucuses and the technological challenges and miscommunication that arose as a result. Next, we highlight the criticisms of Iowa’s first-in-the-nation status, which threaten to undermine Iowa’s current position as the first stop on the road to the White House for presidential hopefuls. We conclude the chapter with a discussion focused on the implications of the 2020 Iowa Caucuses on campaigning for the 2024 presidential election and beyond. We believe that the key to whether or not Iowa retains its first-in-the-nation status is based upon the decision of one individual: President Joe Biden . . . For more click here.
Andrew Green is Professor of Political Science at Central College
Kurt Sernett is a Political Science student at Central College
