Aug 24

Aug 24 Brandon Williams' primary victory upends NY-22 race By Luke Perry

Brandon Williams defeated Steve Wells in the NY-22 Republican primary, constituting the biggest upset in Upstate New York during the Congressional primaries, perhaps even statewide. The newly configured district spans from Utica west to Syracuse, after previously running south to Binghamton over the last decade.

The race was not close. Williams won each of the four counties in the district, including Onondaga and Oneida by large margins. His victory reflects the enthusiasm and influence of more Conservative Republicans who remain unwavering in their support of former president Donald Trump.

Williams was inspired to run by the “rush to judgements” following the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol, particularly in relation to Trump. Locally, Williams believed Republicans felt “betrayed” by Rep. John Katko’s unwillingness to represent Republican values and his voting record.

When asked for examples of significant votes made by Katko that Williams disagreed with Williams stated: “I just don't follow it quite so closely to have a have a list. (I’m) more looking forward.” Williams displayed Conservative populism on the campaign trail, describing himself as a “political outsider,” holding “Washington elite” accountable, and contending that Wells was “Katko 2.0.”

On the issues, Williams described himself as “prolife by faith” and in favor of protecting the Second Amendment for home and family safety, citing his background as an expert pistol marksman in the U.S. Navy and being a hunter. Inflation was the primary pocketbook issue for Williams, who positioned himself as a defender of small businesses.

Williams’ victory illustrated the limitations of endorsements in this race. Wells was endorsed by all four Republican chairs in the district and received several other prominent endorsements, including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Republican Conference Chairperson Rep. Elise Stefanik (NY-21). Wells has been active in finance for the GOP, as former Treasurer of the state Republican Party and current Finance Chair of the Onondaga County Republican Committee.

Wells appeared to overestimate his presumed frontrunner status. Wells did not participate in debates, nor engage extensively with Williams or regional media. This would be a conventional approach for a candidate who believes they have a comfortable lead. Wells bested his 2016 primary showing by 8 points, when he lost to Claudia Tenney, 41 percent to 34 percent, but fell far short of Williams’ 58 percent.

Being a party insider was insufficient in an oddly timed, low turnout primary where pro-Trump Republicans were more energized than moderate Republicans. Wells declined to explicitly support Donald Trump in 2024.

Williams voted for Trump twice and opposed his multiple impeachments as “hoaxes.” Williams did not dispute that “President Biden is our duly elected president,” contrasting himself with current incumbent Rep. Tenney.

Williams is relatively similar to Tenney ideologically, but articulates these views more like Ronald Reagan than Donald Trump. This will help him in the general election campaign, when the Republican nominee will have to convince a predominately Democratic district to reinstate Trump’s policies.

That will be a heavy lift, even with President Biden’s low approval ratings, particularly in the Syracuse and Utica suburbs. Moderate Republicans, like John Katko and Richard Hanna, won multiple times over the last decade in this region.

The GOP primary electorate in Central New York has clearly moved to the right, complicating efforts to win general elections outside of districts where Republicans have large registered voter advantages, such as NY-21, 23, and 24.

Williams’ nomination upended what looked to be a nationally competitive and highly watched swing seat. On paper, a more Conservative, political novice who lives outside of a Democratic district, and raised just over $200,000 and two hundred followers currently on social media, gives Republicans little chance of winning.

At the same time, Democrats are very likely to lose control of the House making NY-22 the type of a seat where Biden could serve as a drag on Democratic candidates. This could unfold similarly to Donald Trump’s first midterm in 2018, where Central New York Democrats Anthony Brindisi (NY-22) and Antonio Delgado (NY-19) defeated incumbent Republicans.

Williams will seek to make the election a referendum on Joe Biden. The overturning of Roe v. Wade is a complicating factor, likely to become an animating issue for Democratic nominee Francis Conole in seeking to mobilize Democratic turnout.

Luke Perry is Professor of Political Science at Utica University