Oct 13

Oct 13 NY-22 is widely considered a toss-up. Should it be? By Luke Perry

Most House elections are not competitive due to the disproportionate advantage in registered partisans one major party has over the other. This is the case for the vast majority of House seats. Over 90 percent of House incumbents are typically reelected, making open seats particularly significant. The newly redistricted NY-22 boundaries lack both a sizeable partisan advantage and an incumbent, elevating it to a nationally watched race.

Political novice Brandon Williams soundly defeated the more experienced and moderate Steve Wells in an upset victory for the Republican nomination. This typically would be considered unhelpful to Republican prospects for winning the general election, since the district now includes Syracuse, making it more Democratic than the old NY-22.

Democratic nominee Francis Conole has experience running for Congress before (albeit losing to Dana Balter in the 2020 primary) and lives in Onondaga County, the most populated county in district. As noted by election analysts, Conole also has the edge in candidate quality and fundraising in a district where Joe Biden won by 8 points.

Still, the race is widely categorized as a “toss-up.” Why is that?

For starters, few thought Williams would win the primary, with Mark Weiner from the Post Standard being a notable exception. Williams deserves credit for running a superior campaign and should not be underestimated. President Biden is not popular with just a 40 percent approval rating. That typically correlates with heavy losses for the president’s party in the first midterm, often in competitive seats like NY-22. In 2018, for example, Donald Trump’s unpopularity contributed to losses by two incumbent House Republicans in Central New York, John Faso (NY-19) and Claudia Tenney (NY-22).

Secondly, there is a lot of unknown within a new district. Any reference to how NY-22 operated in the past is irrelevant, since the district spanned south from Utica to Binghamton for the last decade. NY-24 under Rep. John Katko provides a more germane historical comparison, but still limited, due to the fact that his district was more Republican than the new NY-22. Katko was also able to win several times, irrespective of which party controlled the House or White House, a rarity for Central New York representatives in competitive districts.

Thirdly, polling is heavily relied upon to make campaign evaluations. In some ways, this makes sense, because it is the only attitudinal data available heading into an election. At the same time, accurate polling in competitive Congressional districts can be difficult to achieve, due to challenges in finding participants and effectively constructing a sample that will reflect turnout in a district. Slight miscalculations in expected turnout might underestimate or overestimate some groups of voters at the expense of others, distorting the findings.

The Siena College Research Institute has polled central New York Congressional races for many years. Their recent NY-22 poll has Williams leading Conole 45 percent to 40 percent. This margin is just shy of the 5.1 percent margin of error, suggesting with relative confidence Williams is ahead, though by how much is less certain, spanning 1 to 5 points.

Siena’s polls of recent NY-22 races have been mixed, though relatively solid. Siena’s 2016 poll had Claudia Tenney up by four points, and Tenney won by five points. Siena’s 2018 poll had Anthony Brindisi up by one point, 46 percent to 45 percent, and Brindisi won by one-point, 50 percent to 49 percent. The notable exception was last cycle. Siena’s October 2020 poll had Brindisi ahead by seven points. Brindisi lost by around 100 votes in a flawed and unusual electoral count.

Williams advantage over independent voters (51 percent to 28 percent) was put forth by Siena as a primary reason for his advantageous position. According to the crosstabs, 25 percent of those polled were categorized as independents. This was six points higher than the aforementioned NY-22 polls in 2016, 2018 and 2020, where independents comprised 19 percent in each sample. The reason for this is unclear.

It may be the case that Williams is outperforming Conole nearly 2 to 1 among Independents, considering 70 percent of the Independents polled believe the country is headed in the wrong direction and prefer Lee Zeldin for governor over Kathy Hochul by 19 points. It may also be possible that the independents who were polled are in fact more aligned electorally with the right than a genuine Independent label would suggest. Siena’s own statewide polling on the governor’s race had Zeldin up just three points among Independents and running virtually even in Upstate New York. It is hard to envision Zeldin doing six times better in NY-22.

National polling has found that self-described independents typically lean toward one party or the other, leaving about 7 to 9 percent of likely voters truly not having a clear partisan preference or inclination. A 25 percent vote share for Independents is high by past Siena’s standards and conventional wisdom. This may be accounted for in other ways, such as the overall sample construction, though on the surface, is reason for caution.

Even more problematic is the way in which some Congressional election ratings systems are predicting this race. FiveThirtyEight currently believes Williams has a 65 percent chance of winning to Conole’s 35 percent. They rely on aggregate polling to develop this forecast. Aggregate polling can be very useful is making electoral predications. The problem here is that FiveThirtyEight is using three polls to make their prediction- Siena’s poll and two other polls that were commissioned by the respective campaigns.

Internal campaign polling that is shared publicly is typically done so for strategic reasons. These polls should not be weighted equally with independent polls that have no business relationships to the candidates, nor political motivation. As a result, FiveThirtyEight’s small sample of three polls, only one of which is independent, is of very limited utility in currently understanding the NY-22 race.

It should be concerning for the Conole campaign that the best internal poll it can provide has him up just one point, a virtual tie. This should be the Democrat’s seat to lose, not a race where relatively even standing speaks to competitiveness. Conole has more registered partisans on his side, greater fundraising, and previous campaign experience. These factors would typically line up for a lean-Democratic prediction, though a tepid one, given Biden’s unpopularity and Democratic control of both the federal and state government generating enthusiasm for Republicans.

The upcoming debates will provide both candidates the opportunity to enhance their name recognition. How this impacts their favorability, and the extent to which both parties can mobilize turnout, will be key factors in the final phase of the campaign.

Luke Perry is Professor of Political Science at Utica University