Sep 24

Sep 24 Preview of first presidential debate By Luke Perry

The first of three presidential debates is Tuesday at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland. Chris Wallace (Fox News Sunday) is the moderator selected by the nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates.

Donald Trump called for more debates, an uncharacteristic move for an incumbent president, though common for campaigns who believe they are trailing. Bill Stepien, Donald Trump’s new campaign manager, has prioritized getting Joe Biden to publically engage more in uncontrolled situations.

Biden is not a strong presidential candidate and never has been. Exaggerations and gaffes were a problematic element of Biden’s unsuccessful presidential bid in 1988. Biden did not fare much better in 2008, polling at 3 percent nationally before losing badly in Iowa, ending his campaign.

Biden won his first primary contest this February in South Carolina and subsequently won every remaining state. No modern candidate had secured a nomination after losing Iowa and New Hampshire.

Electoral politics is relative, however. In 2016, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump were the most unpopular presidential candidates ever with 60 percent unfavorable ratings.

Things are a little better now for Trump. 55 percent of registered voters currently view Trump unfavorably, based on average polling this month, but 42 percent view the president favorably, putting him minus 13 overall.

49 percent of voters view Biden favorably, based on average polling this month, compared to 45 percent who view him unfavorably. Biden’s 17-point favorability advantage over Trump helps explain his lead in the polls thus far. The first debate could upend this more than any other aspect of the campaign.

Trump emulated past efforts by George W. Bush and Barack Obama to redefine their challengers in a negative light. Attacks on Biden’s mental acuity and his son Hunter have not worked.

Biden’s national support ranged just three points in overall polling average since March and has been above 50 percent since August. Voters view Trump as more energetic than Biden, but view Biden as more even-tempered, honest, caring, and a better role model.

Biden’s debate performance in the Democratic primary was not good. Proponents of Trump’s attack strategy believe the president is setting up Biden for heightened scrutiny during the debates, amplifying any faltering or misstatements.

Skeptics contend Trump has so lowered expectations that even a decent performance will seem like a victory for Biden whom the president has routinely called “stupid” and “incompetent.”

Meanwhile, Trump’s communications director did not know if “actual debate prep has occurred” as of September 6, and was unfamiliar “with what the plans are to begin that.” Presidents are busy doing their job and can mistakenly downplay the importance of adequately preparing for the first debate.

George W. Bush and Barack Obama both lost the first debate of their reelection campaigns. Voters thought John Kerry outperformed Bush by a 2 to 1 margin in 2004, while Obama’s campaign staff acknowledged Mitt Romney bested him with preparation and style in 2012.

How well Trump defends his record under live questioning and scrutiny will be pivotal. For Biden to be successful, he must find a way to defend himself from attacks without betraying the temperament and leadership style that has served him well so far. This is no easy feat for either candidate under the glare of 80 million viewers.

Luke Perry (@PolSciLukePerry) is Professor of Political Science at Utica College and Director of the Utica College Center of Public Affairs and Election Research.