Sep 10

Sep 10 What are the most important states to watch in the 2020 presidential election? By Luke Perry

2020 Campaign

Swing states will decide who secures 270 Electoral College votes to win the presidential election. About 40 states each cycle are “solid” or “lean” Republican or Democratic. The remaining 10 do not vote as consistently partisan over time, placing over 100 Electoral College votes in play.

Republicans dominate the Southeast and High Plains, while Democrats dominate the Northeast and West Coast. The Midwest is home to the top tier of swing states.

Remarkable upsets in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania carved Donald Trump’s path to victory in 2016, netting 46 Electoral College votes. These three states are a high priority in 2020, given Trump’s narrow margins of victory, and Democratic victories in previous election cycles.

Trump’s campaign is seeking to build on successful appeals to white voters without college degrees, who comprise over 40 percent of the electorate in the Midwest and over 60 percent of nonvoters. Trump’s use of racially inflammatory language is strategically premised on expanding this portion of his base. Just a slight increase would buoy Trump’s chances, where he carried Midwestern swing states by less than one point each.

The second tier of swings states consists of Florida and North Carolina, perennial swingers this century. Barack Obama and George W. Bush both won Florida twice, whose 29 Electoral College votes are the third most. Trump has deep roots there and recently became a resident. Florida is as difficult to predict as any state this year.

North Carolina has typically supported Republican candidates, but Obama narrowly won in 2008, and races have remained close since. Trump has the edge to secure their 15 Electoral College votes, but Biden and Kamala Harris will seek to boost turnout among non-white voters, who comprise 30 percent of the population, and overwhelming vote Democratic.

The third tier of swing states includes New Hampshire and Minnesota, two states that Hillary Clinton narrowly won, making them top targets for Trump. New Hampshire has not gone Republican since 2000, but 2004 and 2016 were close. Minnesota last voted Republican in 1972, but was competitive under W. Bush and in 2016. Biden will run on Obama’s coattails, who comfortably won the state twice.

The final tier of swing states is a loosely defined hodgepodge that Republicans typically win, but polling suggest might be in play this cycle, headlined by Arizona. Arizona’s competitive Senate race is leaning Democratic, even though Republican incumbent Martha McSally holds the seat.

Democrats seeming ability to win a prolific statewide race suggests Arizona is competitive, but Republicans have won every presidential contest since 1996. Arizona is a reach for Biden, but current dynamics have prompted the Trump campaign to play defense, a residual benefit regardless of the outcome.

Trump should win the other three states in this tier, Ohio, Georgia and Texas. Ohio used to be a bellwether, but Trump could easily win here again, and still lose the election. Georgia and Texas have long been Republican strongholds, but growing racial/ethnic diversity and urbanization is increasingly challenging for Republicans.

One might say that a lot could change between now and Election Day, but early voting begins September 18, and over 90 percent of swing-state voters have already made up their mind, with just 5 percent indicating their preferences might change. As results come in, swing states will determine who wins and by how much.

Luke Perry is Professor of Political Science at Utica College and Director of the Utica College Center of Public Affairs and Election Research.