Jun 25

Jun 25 Zeldin opens up 6.5-Point lead over Giuliani in GOP Primary for New York Governor By John Zogby

Congressman Lee Zeldin of Long Island has moved into a 6.5-point lead over businessman and former Trump Administration advisor Andrew Giuliani, according to a new poll conducted by John Zogby Strategies.

The poll of 400 likely voters in the June 28 Republican primary for governor of New York was conducted online from June 20-22 and has a margin-of-sampling error of +/-5 percentage points. Error margins are higher for subgroups.

Zeldin leads Giuliani 34.5% to 28%, with Rob Astorino, former Westchester County Executive and 2014 GOP candidate for governor, at 16%, followed closely by turnaround investor Harry Wilson with 14% and not sure at 8%.

Giuliani leads Zeldin among:

—voters in New York City (32% to 26%)

—the small slice of 18-29-year-old voters expected to show up (39% to Astorino’s 31% and Zeldin’s 15%)

—self-described moderates (30% to 26%)

—those with a high school diploma or less (33% to 30%)

Zeldin holds sway among:

—Upstate New York voters (32% to 24%, with Wilson at 21%)

—home region of New York City’s suburbs (42% to 32%)

—all age groups over 30

—men (38% to 29%) and women (31% to 27%)

—conservatives (37% to 29%).

On the Democratic side, Governor Kathy Hochul holds a commanding lead with 55% to 22% for Congressman Tom Suozzi and New York City’s Public Advocate Jumaane Williams with 19%. She is trouncing both candidates among every subgroup.

Governor Hochul will enter the general election with a job approval rating of 55% to 40% who disapprove. She also has a personal favorable rating of 54% to 40% unfavorable. No GOP candidate tops 33%: Zeldin has a 33% favorable and 33% unfavorable, with 25% not familiar enough to make a judgment. Giuliani benefits from his father’s name recognition in the horse race but also appears to have inherited the antipathy with only a 30% favorable rating and 50% unfavorable and 15% not familiar enough. Astorino’s rating is 30%-24%-34%, while Wilson, who has spent a fortune to build a 31% to 19%, but still 38% not familiar enough.

This GOP race has been a dynamic one. Despite being hammered for months with a heavy negative advertising blitz by Wilson, Zeldin has gone from a 10-point deficit in the May poll to a 6.5-point lead. In fact, we saw his lead jump from 2 points on Tuesday to 4 points on Wednesday, and finally 6.5 points by the time the poll closed Thursday. He could bring even more momentum in the days that follow.

In the initial horse race question, Wilson trailed with only 9% support, but then with “leaners” factored in, he jumped to 14%. He could conceivably overtake Astorino. Actually, Giuliani was polling around 30% the first night and then slightly declined over the two next days in the field. If that trend line continues, there may be a tight race for second place.

The top issues by far and away are crime (54%) and taxes/budget (43%). Interestingly only 22% mention the economy and helping small businesses. The top two issues could play into Republican hands in the fall. But for now, the Governor is still popular.

In the five months we’ve been tracking, this has continuously been a fluid race.

John Zogby (@TheJohnZogby) is the founder of the Zogby Poll and Zogby companies, including John Zogby Strategies, and author of We Are Many We Are One: Neo-Tribes and Tribal Analytics in the 21st Century America.