The GOP’s Future Has Been Decided: It’s Trump’s Party By Heather Yates
The notion that the Republican Party’s identity has yet been determined in post-Trump era is fraught. The intraparty conflict is not about defining the party’s future. It is the intense struggle between the traditional Reagan conservatives and Trump loyalists.
Presidents influence public perception of the party long after a president has vacated office and there are myriad data points to illustrate that the Republican Party and Trumpism have merged. Here are three notable observations.
First, Trump loyalists will have electoral success in the post Trump era, especially in the states (and districts) where Trump’s support intensified during his presidency. For example the 2022 Arkansas gubernatorial race will likely affirm this. Former White House Press Secretary, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, announced her candidacy for governor in January. Unlike other states in the South where there was some GOP defection, Arkansas doubled down on Trump. Therefore, Sanders (also the daughter of a former GOP governor and endorsed by Trump) was a preemptive front runner well before she announced, and not to mention, her fundraising prowess. It is expected that she will be elected handedly as the states’ first woman governor, and as the staunch Trump loyalist.
Photo from White House
Second, the once mainstream traditional Reagan conservatives have become long-shot candidates. Special elections, like the Texas 6th congressional district in May illustrated that some Republicans are not ready to quit Trump. Michael Wood, a self-identified traditional conservative and vocally anti-Trump Republican, was backed by Representative Adam Kinzinger, but lost his election in a district Trump won by only two points.
Third, the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) 2021 speakers’ agenda showcased a rotation of Trump loyalists that included Senator Josh Hawley, Representatives Matt Gaetz, Devin Nunes and others. In the past, this event has been a platform for presidential hopefuls and rank-and-file Republicans. This year, some of the more prominent GOP leaders declined the invitation or did not receive one altogether. This is significant because events like these provide insight to a party’s political priorities moving forward. In past, CPAC had been utilized to promote party unity among the factions. This year, it functioned like an exclusive club rewarding Trump loyalists with membership.
Rep. Adam Kinzinger (photo from Rep. Kinzinger)
Not every Republican has embraced Trumpism though. Representatives like Adam Kinzinger and Liz Cheney are the two prominent voices leading the charge of the traditional Reagan conservatives, and Cheney was stripped of her leadership post for voicing opposition to Trump.
It boils down to the fact that Trump’s grip on the GOP was permitted to happen and is still being privileged. Shortly after Trump was inaugurated, the Republican congressional leadership had opportunities to exert some influence and mentor their neophyte president. Instead, the members of the GOP conference practiced a mutual exploitation that yielded some short-termed political benefits. However, the long-term effects of such practices reshaped the party in Trump’s image. The GOP protected Trump while he was president. They continue to shield him now as recently evidenced by the Senate Republicans blocking the bipartisan January 6 commission that would have investigated the timeline leading up to the Capitol breach.
The question is not whether Trumpism defines the GOP, because it does, the question is how long will it have a grip on the Republican Party. To wrestle the party away from Trump, it requires the same intentional mobilization on par with the effort that embraced him.
Heather E. Yates is an associate professor of political science at the University of Central Arkansas. Her expertise encompasses political behavior with specialties in campaigns and elections, the American Presidency, and gender and race in politics. Dr. Yates has published books, several book chapters, and articles on topics related to political behavior in American elections
