Even without removal from office, Trump more contained now than ever before By Luke Perry

President Trump’s role and response to his supporters’ insurrection at the U.S. Capitol has led to bipartisan condemnation, producing a historically significant moment where the President could be impeached again, and potentially removed from office by the U.S. Senate or the 25th Amendment.

Vice-President Pence is reportedly not inclined to invoke Section 4 of the 25th Amendment. Two Cabinet members have resigned. Others, including close allies of the president, such as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, have discussed removing Trump.   

Speaker Pelosi and Leader Schumer have called for Pence and the Cabinet to remove Trump or Congress will move forward with impeachment proceedings. Only three presidents have been impeached in U.S. history. None were impeached twice.

Efforts to remove the president have a very limited chance of materializing, due to the number of people necessary in Trump’s cabinet or the Senate for this to happen. Still, the events of January 6 have created a situation where the president’s threat to the nation is severely weakened in the days ahead.

This does not diminish what happened (see the American Political Science Association’s statement on the insurrection), nor seek to inform what should happen next. Instead, the point here is that President Trump's handling of his election loss, culminating in the Capitol riot, has contributed to a significant decline in his political capital and influence that hinders anything he may want to do during his short time left in office.

President Trump is now estranged from the most powerful leaders in U.S. government. Pence is “angry” with the president’s response to doing his Constitutional duty in the Senate, and the riot, where law enforcement shot and killed a rioter forcing her way “toward the House Chamber where Members of Congress were sheltering in place.” Four other people were killed, including Capitol Police Officer Brian Sicknick.

Pence privately cited “all I have done for him” in expressing exacerbation about his relationship with the president. Pence’s own presidential ambitions may limit his inclination to invoke the 25th Amendment, but it is unlikely he has much interest in supporting the president over the next two weeks.

McConnell is no longer speaking with Trump after the Capitol riot. Earlier that day, the Senate Majority Leader rebuked Trump’s electoral fraud campaign. Today his wife, Elaine Chao, resigned from her position as Transportation Secretary. McConnell appears to have lost interest in forwarding his party’s ambitions through Donald Trump.

Photo from Sen. McConnell

The Supreme Court and federal judiciary, bolstered by a historic number of Trump’s nominations, has litigiously rebuked Trump’s “stolen election” conspiracy theory.

Trump’s unfiltered public messaging via social media was disrupted when Twitter (permanently) and Facebook (indefinitely) suspended his accounts, triggered by a post-riot video falsely claiming electoral fraud, empathizing with rioters, and saying “we love you.”

The Defense Department is unlikely to engage in military action until the election transition is complete. Speaker Pelosi spoke with defense leaders earlier today, including the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who “answered questions regarding the process of nuclear command authority.” All 10 living, former defense secretaries called on Trump to accept the election results. Two recent secretaries who served under him, Jim Mattis and Mark Esper, condemned Trump’s behavior surrounding the Capitol riot.

The dramatic collapse of the Trump presidency cannot be overstated. On top of fomenting a deadly riot, not since Herbert Hoover, has a president’s first term experienced the loss of the White House and both chambers of Congress by his party. In a tacit acknowledgement of potential legal wrongdoing, the president is mulling pardoning himself prior to leaving office.

There is a still a good chance Trump finishes his term, and seeks to then monetize his political notoriety to help pay off $900 million in debt, perhaps in a new media venture. Either way, Trump is now confronting the reality of rapidly declining influence on the dynamics of U.S. government and the severely weakened position of the Republican Party in the wake of his short tenure in national politics.

Luke Perry (@PolSciLukePerry) is Professor of Political Science at Utica College