May 10

May 10 Why Republican fealty to Donald Trump might be electorally effective and a sign of existential crisis for the GOP By Luke Perry

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy endorsed Rep. Elise Stefanik (NY-21) for Republican Conference Chair, the third ranking leadership position for House Republicans. Liz Cheney (WY), who currently holds the position, has faced criticism from Republicans for voting to impeach Donald Trump for his role in the January 6 domestic terrorist attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Tensions reached a breaking point last week when Rep. Cheney rejected Trump’s assertions that the 2020 election was fraudulent and said that Trump was “poisoning our democratic system.” Cheney also contends this is a pivotal moment for the Republican Party.

“The question before us now is whether we will join Trump’s crusade to delegitimize and undo the legal outcome of the 2020 election,” Cheney wrote in a recent Washington Post op-ed. “The Republican Party is at a turning point,” Cheney explained, “and Republicans must decide whether we are going to choose truth and fidelity to the Constitution.”

Cheney’s critics, including McCarthy, have argued that party unity is essential to future electoral success. Toward that end, Stefanik has transformed herself from a Bush/Ryan Republican into a Trump acolyte in just a few short years. This helped Stefanik quickly rise the leadership ranks, while prompting her to promote Trump-related conspiracy theories.

Much related analysis has emphasized Trump’s continued influence on the Republican Party (examples here, here, & here). This is extraordinary, considering the Republican Party has been defined by electoral losses, a deadly pandemic and economic decline under Trump’s tenure.

Trump was first president to lose reelection in 28 years and first president whose party lost the presidency, House, and Senate in a single four-year term since Hebert Hoover. Over 400,000 people died of COVID while Trump was in office, while the economy collapsed into historically deep recession, after averaging a modest 2.5 percent growth rate during Trump’s first three years in office.

A robust contingent of Republicans still identify with Trump, amounting to 1 in 4 Americans who think he did a “good” or “great” job. Most Americans hold Trump’s presidency in low regard with over 40 percent describing his tenure as “terrible.”

Why do House Republicans take cues from an unpopular and ineffectual former president?

1) House districts are deeply polarized and do not reflect national attitudes

Over the past several decades House districts have gotten more polarized, meaning districts have become overwhelming Democratic or Republican. In recent cycles, there have been about 40 competitive seats, most of which are open seats without incumbents. This means over 90 percent of general election races are not competitive.

Donald Trump is disproportionately popular in heavily Republican districts and disproportionately unpopular in heavily Democratic districts. As a result, Trump’s low approval ratings nationally, or even statewide in battleground states, are less impactful in House districts. Trump’s supporters and critics are heavily clustered together in respective districts.

2) Republican House incumbents do not want Trump-motivated primary challenges

All members of Congress, including House Republicans, know the 2020 election was not “stolen.” This absurd lie is contrary to all existing evidence and judicial rulings, but is useful to serving political ambitions.

Republicans do not want to face primary challenges from Trump-backed candidates Being complicit in mischaracterizing the 2020 election helps secure their right flank among constituents, many of whom sincerely believe in malfeasance, because this has been so strongly messaged by Trump and his supporters.

Representatives who are critical of Trump’s behavior face potential censure from state party delegations and diminished support among far-right supporters. The Conservative Party withdrawing their endorsement of Rep. John Katko in NY-24 is a prime example.

3) Republican House incumbents do not want to hamper their fundraising efforts

Donald Trump still has fundraising prowess among many politically-active Republicans. Trump’s PAC has $85 million to spend heading into next year’s midterm.

Trump’s brand of politics is deeply personal and vindictive. There is little doubt his supporters will focus on primary challenges to House Republicans who voted to impeach him This is already creating tensions among big Republican donors, who want to channel money toward winning back the House and rebuilding the Republican Party, not settling personal scores.

4) The prospect of Republicans retaking the House is defining McCarthy’s approach toward Trump

Republicans are apoplectic about the dramatic shift toward unified Democratic government that began this year. President Biden’s first midterm constitutes a flicker of light unifying and guiding most Republicans out of the hole that Trump dug.

Ironically, McCarthy believes that keeping the 2020 GOP coalition together one more cycle is the best chance in breaking Democratic dominance and positioning himself to become Speaker of the House. House Republicans of all stripes, will dance with Trump awhile longer- some begrudgingly, some not -because it constitutes the quickest and simplest path to power.

This strategy has merit in the short term. The party of popular president’s typically lose over a dozen seats in the first midterm. Biden is currently popular (53 percent) by conventional standards, but presidential popularity often falls after the First 100 Days. If Biden slips below 50 percent by next fall, empirical trends suggest Democrats could lose upward of 37 seats in the midterm.

These are general estimates, of course, and current political dynamics are less predictable than normal. Nevertheless Republicans are well within striking distance to retake the House.

Kevin McCarthy and Liz Cheney could both be right.

The GOP’s best shot at regaining power may be to bandage up the electoral wounds of 2018 and 2020 and run back the same House crew in 2022, thinking empirical crosswinds will be more favorable this time around. The Republican Party also may be experiencing an existential crisis where fealty to Donald Trump, and his undisciplined, unmoored, and undemocratic behavior hinders the party long term.

Luke Perry is Professor of Political Science at Utica College