NY-22 Minute: President Trump's Campaign Manager Tweets NY-22 Poll By Luke Perry

This afternoon Brad Parscale, Donald Trump’s reelection campaign manager, Tweeted NY-22 polling data that he commissioned from McLaughlin and Associates.  

Parscale contended that “in NY-22 Anthony Brindisi barely won in 2018 and he’s in big trouble now because of impeachment.”

The poll’s memo claimed Brindisi was a “vulnerable incumbent who will make his chances of his reelection worse by supporting impeachment.”

The poll was conducted earlier this week and consisted of 300 registered voters.

Generic ballot questions are often used to gauge national enthusiasm toward the party who controls the House of Representatives. The preference for Republican candidates in NY-22 is not surprising, given the consistent 30,000 registered voter advantage for the GOP.

The 13 point margin is identical to generic preference for Republican control of Congress prior to the 2018 election, 53 percent to 40 percent. This was not an impediment to Anthony Brindisi defeating Republican incumbent Claudia Tenney.

The question about performance in office incorrectly refers to Brindisi with the female pronoun “her.”

Even so, it is safe to infer NY-22 is currently divided over whether to reelect Rep. Brindisi. This is to be expected, given the aforementioned partisan dynamics of the district, and will likely be the norm throughout the 2020 campaign.

Sizable opposition to Brindisi’s reelection would indicate electoral troubles. That is not evident in this data. The two point margin is below the five point margin of error.

The poll illustrated strong attitudes for and against impeaching President Trump with opposition significantly outnumbering support. The latter is not good for Rep. Brindisi.

Brindisi voted to proceed with the impeachment inquiry and recently characterized the president’s behavior toward Ukraine as “troubling.” This shift followed Brindisi distancing himself from impeachment as an NY-22 candidate and representative (examples here and here).

Impeachment is a long process, so the situation, and related public opinion, are fluid. How Brindisi will vote on forthcoming impeachment charges is unclear. Given his approach thus far, he may vote for some charges and not others, though House Democrats and Republicans have been unified to date.

This poll helps explain the social media messaging of Claudia Tenney, the current front-runner in the GOP primary, whose Twitter account in recent weeks has been heavily focused on anti-impeachment sentiment.

This focus appears designed to rally Trump enthusiasts. A challenge for Tenney is how to marry a coalition of pro-Trump Republicans with moderate Republicans and independents disillusioned with Trump’s first term. Tenney has been more effective at engendering support from the former than the latter.

Comparing impeachment attitudes to policy issues, such as healthcare and jobs, is not particularly instructive. One could safely assume the vast majority of NY-22 residents care more about issues that directly impact their daily lives than a rare, complicated, and ugly political process.

That said, it is surprising that 1 in 5 likely NY-22 voters prioritize impeachment over these bread-and-butter issues. That is higher than one would expect in a heavily Republican district and worthy of comparison to other nationally competitive districts. This figure also suggests that strong desires to impeach the president extend well beyond grassroots liberal activists.

Democrats are underrepresented in the poll. According to New York State Board of election figures from last month, Democrats constitute 40 percent of registered voters, compared to 33 percent in this sample.

Republicans are better represented. 48 percent of NY-22 registered voters are Republicans, compared to 45 percent in this sample.

Older people are over represented in the sample. According to U.S. Census data, 19 percent of the district is 65 years of age or older. That age group comprised 34 percent of this sample.

This is the first of what will likely be several publicly accessible NY-22 polls during the 2020 campaign. The commissioning of this particular poll, coupled with Parscale’s comments, suggest that Rep. Brindisi is a primary target for the president as he seeks to pressure select House Democrats to oppose his impeachment.

Luke Perry (@PolSciLukePerry) is Professor of Government at Utica College 

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