Oct 30

Oct 30 Calls for Electoral Reform Follow Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Narrow Reelection By Emma Dreher and Joshua Turner

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has won a second term, with his party capturing the lowest vote share of any majority or minority government in Canadian history. Indeed, debate raged following news that his Liberal party lost the popular vote while still winning enough seats to secure a minority government – trailing Andrew Scheer’s Conservative Party, 33.1% to 34.4%. Such an outcome has happened just three times before – most recently in 1979, when Trudeau’s father, Prime Minister Pierre Elliot Trudeau, won the popular vote but failed to win the seats necessary to secure a minority government.

In light of this unusual outcome, a renewed call for electoral reform has emerged. Proponents include MP Jagmeet Singh, leader of the New Democratic Party. The likelihood that this will come to fruition under the newly re-elected Liberal government is low, especially considering that Trudeau abandoned his own 2015 campaign promise of electoral reform less than a year after taking office. Moreover, if the purpose of electoral reform is to improve representation, this election is certainly not the best example for proponents of reform to rely on. The progressive agendas championed by the Liberal, New Democratic, and Green parties captured the enthusiasm of a combined majority of Canadians and, with the Liberals only holding on to a minority government, collaboration among these left-leaning parties is likely to produce policy outcomes that appeal to that majority support.

Despite this appeal, the divisions laid bare by this election are unlikely to heal over the next four years. While the Liberal party could legislate without the support of the Conservative Party, it would behoove them to reach across the aisle as a gesture to the third of Canadians who voted for Conservative candidates. Similar to the United States, regional divides have become increasingly stark north of the border. Regionalism is on the rise in Canada, and this most recent election has undoubtedly aided in that rise – a trend likely to continue in its aftermath. The Conservative party swept the prairie provinces, with some calling for #wexit across social media – a separation of the western provinces from Canada. Meanwhile, the sovereigntist Bloc Québécois made major gains – but only after shifting their focus away from calls for sovereignty. At least for now, Canada seems fractured but not broken. It remains to be seen, however, whether Trudeau’s Liberals can reconcile these competing ideas of Canada – especially in provinces where his party has such limited representation.

Internationally, perhaps no one is more relieved to see a Trudeau victory than French President Emmanuel Macron. Given the chaos surrounding both Donald Trump in the United States and Boris Johnson & Brexit in the United Kingdom, combined with the declining influence of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Trudeau has been the one reliable partner for Macron as he pushes forward with a liberal, pro-democratic agenda globally. Both men received endorsements from former U.S President Barack Obama (the only two such endorsements Obama has made) and both have seemed keen to push back against anti-globalist, right wing populism in their own countries and abroad.

Canada’s relationship with China, it’s second largest trading partner from whom it purchased roughly $37.9 billion dollars in imports last year, remains somewhat chilly after the arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou at the request of the United States (Wanzhou’s extradition case is ongoing) as well as Trudeau’s willingness to accuse China of using ‘arbitrary detention’ for political purposes after two Canadians were held on charges of espionage. Trudeau has shown no signs backing down from this challenge and, despite leading a minority government, may feel emboldened to continue his show of strength after an election victory.

Canada’s most important bilateral relationship, with the United States, remains strained. President Trump did not express support for Trudeau after his blackface scandal and called him ‘meek’ and ‘dishonest’ during a G7 meeting in response to Trudeau proclaiming that Canada would not be pushed around by the United States in trade negotiations. Perhaps the most salient factor in the relationship involves the fate of the USMCA, or NAFTA 2.0, trade agreement – while the deal has already been ratified by Mexico, Canada has maintained its position that it will move its ratification process at the same speed as the United States, where it is held up in congress. Trudeau must now reintroduce the agreement in the next parliamentary session – it remains unclear how the U.S will move forward, given both the impeachment inquiry and the coming election in 2020.

Canadian foreign policy seems unlikely to change much after this most recent election; one might expect to see a continuation of seeking stronger ties to the European Union, where Trudeau is well liked among policymakers, with an emphasis on continuing to strengthen the rules based liberal order, combined with continuing tension in its relationships with both the United States and China. While seemingly paradoxical, Trudeau’s newfound weakness at home in leading a minority government may encourage him to act more forcefully in foreign policy, where he can rely on the power of his personality.

Emma Dreher ( @emmacdreher) is a PhD Student in the Department of Political Science at the Maxwell School of Syracuse University

Joshua Turner ( @joshuaaturner84) is a PhD Student in the Department of Political Science at the University at Buffalo