Trump wins New Hampshire as 2024 primary campaign enters new phase By Luke Perry
Concord, NH . . . Donald Trump won the New Hampshire primary. Current totals have the former president ahead 54 percent to 43 percent. These could change slightly as the final tally is completed.
Major headlines at national news organizations, like the Associated Press and Washington Post, are emphasizing Trump’s dominance this morning. Trump is the first non-incumbent Republican to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. This is a great start for his campaign, though his pseudo-incumbent status in the race is a unique and beneficial factor.
There is little mention of how Joe Biden lost both states in 2020, went to South Carolina, and secured the nomination. Of course, the current candidates and circumstances are very different. It is unlikely that Haley can or will run the table from here. That said, Trump won by double digits but is poised to net just three more delegates than Halley (Trump 11, Haley 8). This gives him a 31 to 16 delegate lead in a race to secure an over 1,200 delegate majority. Mathematically, this contest is still competitive.
It is likely to stay that way until proportional delegate allocation is displaced by a large number of states with winner-take-all allocation, meaning the candidate with the most votes in the primary wins all the state’s delegates. Super Tuesday is important for both the volume of delegates at state and the incorporation of states that utilize winner-take-all.
Photo from Nikki Haley
In the meantime, Haley will have a month to barnstorm in her home state and attempt to adeptly prod Trump into episodes of public implosion. Trump’s campaign speeches in Iowa and New Hampshire were very different. The former struck conciliatory tones of reconciliation. Last night was raw, off-script anger, preceded by social media rants during Haley’s speech.
This feeds into Haley’s critique of Trump as chaotic and in mental decline. Haley will continue to emphasize the contradiction of not debating him while claiming to be smarter than her and being so angry about her staying in the race while simultaneously claiming victory and touting his successes.
Haley’s style and approach differs from other Republican rivals who took Trump on as does her gender. There is some potential for her jabs to do political damage for Trump in the primary and perhaps beyond. Haley is not trying to emulate Trump in style or intensity, instead opting to calmly and rationally dissect his behavior and candidacy. She is the first candidate with substantial GOP backing to implement this approach.
Gendered attacks by Trump, who already commented on her attire last night, are unlikely to help him in the larger effort to eventually make nice when this race is over (provided he wins the nomination) and appeal to Haley supporters, particularly moderately conservative, suburban women. When I spoke with her in Wyndam, Haley shared how many young girls have given her friendship brackets on the campaign trail and displayed one she was wearing.
In citing Haley’s demise, pundits point to dated independent polling that showed Trump was up big. South Carolina is more conservative than the first two primary states. Trump is certainly positioned to be strong there. But recent polling on a two person race would provide a more accurate picture.
Photo from Nikki Haley
South Carolina will test the strength of endorsements, which carry less pull in our current digital media environment. Trump has many, though Haley knows the state better, has time to strategize, and a month to campaign. Retail politics is Haley’s strength in contrast to Trump, who forgoes this.
Of course, the funding will need to hold up. Haley’s biggest challenge is convincing donors that she still has a chance. Her supporters will hold out hope till the end, but big donors are more judicious with their money. They don’t want to put millions of dollars into a lost cause.
There is always the chance that Haley pulls out before South Carolina, particularly if the numbers look bad, avoiding an embarrassing defeat in her home state. Haley may also decide to cut her losses at some point to better position herself in 2028. Neither is imminent. The campaign is mindful of the uncertainty following Trump’s legal situation and has confidence in their ability to erode his popularity.
Provided Haley stays in the race, New Hampshire constitutes the beginning of a second phase in this campaign. Haley needs her best month ever leading up South Carolina and then parlay this success into Super Tuesday. It’s a long shot, for sure, but not impossible. “It’s not dark yet,” to quote Bob Dylan, and too soon to conclude “we’re getting there.”
Luke Perry is Distinguished Professor and Chair of Political Science at Utica University and Director of Utica University’s Masters of Public Administration Program and Center of Public Affairs and Election Research
