India’s State Elections Spell Trouble for Prime Minister Modi By Aaron Barsham
The 2022 State Legislative Elections in India are a focal point for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Five states are up this cycle: Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur and Goa. Punjab is the only one not held by the BJP and instead held by the Indian National Congress (INC).
This year, however, the BJP’s majority in these states’ legislatures could be tested. In Uttar Pradesh, which accounts for around 17% of India’s voting population, the Samajwadi Party + (SP+) alliance is gaining ground against the BJP’s National Democratic Alliance. The state is still a manageable battleground for the BJP, but SP+ has cut down the BJP’s projected election lead from 16.8% in March 2021 to 8.2% in January 2022. Losing majority control of this huge legislature could spell trouble for the BJP’s reforms and policies, and despite Modi holding a virtual rally in Uttar Pradesh recently, the potential for an upset by other parties is a valid concern for the BJP. Almost every seat held by the BJP in Uttar Pradesh is being contested by at least one other party besides the BJP, and it is similar across the other Indian states with legislative elections. In Goa, every seat but one is being contested four or more major parties, including the BJP. In Manipur, all but two seats are being contested by the BJP, INC, and the Naga’s People Front (NPF). In Uttarakhand, the BJP, INC and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) are contesting every seat, and the BJP is projected to win approximately 30 less seats than they did in in 2017.
Photo from wikipedia
Prime Minister Modi and the BJP had to deal with numerous political issues up to this point. Three ministers and seven MLAs serving under the BJP Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh resigned prior to the upcoming elections over differences with the leadership and direction of the Prime Minster and the party, mainly due to a lack of a populist direction. The repealing of controversial farm laws in November of 2021 was one of the first times Modi has reversed a policy due to public indifference. A recent surge in COVID-19 cases in India, despite Modi’s recent announcement that 75% of Indians are fully vaccinated, has put the issues with the COVID-19 pandemic into the BJP’s lap. The BJP has also named fifty-five nominees with criminal records, and villagers in western Uttar Pradesh have waved black flags and thrown mud at BJP candidates in protest to their nominations, provoking a response in which multiple young people have been brutalized for these protests.
As the legislative elections come to a head throughout the year, the BJP and Modi may be put in a tough political position, as the potential for political upsets across the country may put many of the BJP’s policy goals on standby. If the BJP overperforms projections in this election cycle, they are better set to push those policy goals through. If the BJP underperforms, it will still take a massive effort from different opposing parties to ensure that BJP policy goals remain on standby. As the BJP’s focus shifts from state to state throughout the year, the direction that India wants to go in will take shape.
Aaron Barsham is a Political Science student at Utica College
