Democrats divided in redistricting war By Luke Perry & Jordan Conestabile
Democratic-controlled state governments are faced with difficult decisions regarding how to move forward with redistricting. There are clear electoral benefits in gerrymandering districts in their favor, but having criticized Republican gerrymandering following the 2010 election, and championing independent commissions, this comes with inherent challenges
Republicans have unified control of 23 state legislatures compared to 15 states controlled by Democrats, a severe change from 20 years ago, when Republicans controlled just 3 states, and 32 states had divided government.
Republicans control four populous Southern states that will redistrict this year: Texas, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina. If gerrymandered, these states could yield approximately 5 to 10 Republican House seats. This may be offset somewhat by states previously gerrymandered in Republican’s favor that have since adopted independent commissions, such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Photo from Cambridge government
14 states have commissions with primarily responsibility for redistricting. 11 more states have advisory commissions or backup commissions if the state legislature is unable to agree. States have increasingly moved toward commissions, spurred in part by Democratic-efforts to overcoming Republican gerrymandering. In 2019, however, the Supreme Court ruled that partisan gerrymandering is constitutional.
Virginia’s recent redistricting reforms divided Democrats, for instance. Most opposed a new amendment to create a redistricting commission, but nine Democrats voted with Republicans, and the measure was overwhelmingly adopted by voters.
“Unless you’re going to have everybody do redistricting commissions,” said Rep. Donald McEachin (VA-4, D), “our party is at a disadvantage.” We Democrats are cursed this blindness about good government,” lamented Rep. Gerry Connelly of Virginia.
Photo from House
Some states, including New York and New Mexico, established independent commissions, but enabled state legislatures to reject these proposals and assume redistricting responsibilities.
In New York, a 10-member independent commission has two opportunities to submit redistricting plans to the legislature for approval. If rejected, the legislature can develop its own version.
There will be tremendous national pressure for Democrats to maximize their advantage and draw districts that could enable several new Democratic House seats. How state party leaders navigate principle versus power will shape state and federal legislative dynamics for the next decade.
Luke Perry is Professor of Political Science at Utica College
Jordan Conestabile is a Political Science student at Utica College
