NY-22 Minute: Will Brindisi's Support for Impeachment Doom His Reelection Chances? By Luke Perry
Rep. Anthony Brindisi announced this morning that he will vote to impeach the president. The decision caused Brindisi “great pain” in light of his work with the Trump administration on various issues, including trade and national security.
“President Trump is my president too,” Brindisi explained. “I always said I would work with him, but that I would put our country first and stand up for what I believe in.”
Brindisi’s full explanation was published by Syracuse.com.
“There is little doubt, the president made a grave error— intended or not — in his ‘perfect’ call with Ukraine. The fact that the president made a political request to a foreign leader of a troubled country with the intention for it to impact an American rival is beyond disappointing. In fact, it is unconstitutional.
I took an oath to defend the Constitution. What the president has — on national television — admitted to doing is not something I can pretend is normal behavior. It is also wrong for the president to block the testimony of key subpoenaed witnesses that had direct knowledge of the administration’s actions. There is a difference between working with a president and checking that same president. My job is to do both.”
Brindisi is one of 31 Democrats representing districts President Trump won in 2016. Republicans have consistently had a 25,000 to 30,000 registered voter advantage in NY-22. New York’s multiple ballot lines process also favors upstate Republicans, where conservative third parties outnumber liberal ones.
Brindisi focused much of his 2018 campaign and first year in office on local concerns. His representative style is predicated on bipartisanship, independence, and accessibility. Polarizing national issues make this difficult, particularly impeachment, a very rare and highly partisan process.
I predicted in February “there will be polarizing votes Brindisi will have to cast,” which “could involve House oversight of the presidency.” This is worst-case-scenario, which Brindisi worked behind-the-scenes to prevent and postpone.
Photo by Tom Magnarelli/WRVO
It is early in the 2020 election cycle. The New York Congressional primary won’t take place until June 23.
Early indications point to a protracted GOP race between Claudia Tenney and Steve Cornwell. Both are enthusiastic supporters of the president and critics of impeachment who have tangled publicly over who has the best chance to defeat Brindisi.
The general election outcome will result from many factors, including incumbency advantage and the strength of the Republican challenge, both of which currently favor Brindisi.
House incumbents are reelected 95 percent of the time and the GOP primary field is not particularly strong. Tenney lost the seat as a Republican incumbent. The other three candidates have limited name recognition, government experience, and fundraising ability.
Photo by Mike Groll/AP
Presidential Trump’s campaign has commissioned and shared polling illustrating opposition to impeachment in NY-22. No independent polling is currently available.
Trump did well in 2016 in NY-22, but his popularity has fallen in upstate New York over the past three years. While attitudes vary per Congressional district, the region as a whole has come to view the president more like the rest of the country.
Devoted Trump supporters will not vote for Brindisi in 2020, irrespective of impeachment. The political risk in voting for impeachment is alienating independents and crossover Republicans, but neither of these groups are particularly supportive of the president.
The political risk in voting against impeachment was alienating liberal progressives, who have organized like never before in NY-22 following Trump’s election. Disaffected progressives will not vote Republican, but they would have likely turned out, organized, and donated, in smaller numbers.
While there is not an ongoing purity test for most Democrats, there is a sense that you need to deliver in big moments. Michael Arcuri, the last Democrat to represent the Utica area, lost support on the left when he voted against The Affordable Care Act.
Rep. Max Rose (Shumita Basu/WNYC)
Brindisi had been “agonizing” over how to vote as he studied the hearing transcripts and constitutional law, following an unsuccessful, last minute attempt to censure the president, rather than impeach him.
Reps. Antonio Delgado (NY-19) and Max Rose (NY-11), fellow freshman Democrats from NY, already indicated they will vote in favor of impeachment, while neighboring GOP representatives, Reps. John Katko (NY-24) and Elise Stefanik (NY-21), will be voting against.
Several moderate Democrats in competitive districts announced their support for impeachment in recent days, characterizing their decisions as “acts of consciences.” The measure is nearly certain to pass with few Democrats, if any, voting against.
Luke Perry (@PolSciLukePerry) is Professor of Government at Utica College
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