NY-22 Minute: Siena Poll Reveals Risks for GOP House Incumbents in NY By Luke Perry

A recently released Siena College Poll found that President Trump’s approval rating has dropped to a new low in the state of New York. Trump’s unpopularity upstate is of particular note for NY-22 and other upstate districts currently represented by GOP incumbents. 

61 percent of upstate New Yorkers think the country is “heading in the wrong direction.” Just 26 percent think the country is headed in the “right direction.” 

59 percent of upstate New Yorkers view President Trump unfavorably. Just 36 percent view Trump favorably.

Half of upstate New Yorkers think President Trump is doing a "poor" job as president, nearly twice as many as those who think he is doing a "good" or "excellent" job.

These challenges manifest themselves in policy perceptions.  Trump is better received policywise upstate than downstate, but his negative ratings on the direction of the country are identical to downstate. 

Significant amounts of Upstate New Yorkers think President Trump has done a “poor” job: creating jobs (36 percent), keeping Americans safe from terrorism (37 percent), addressing the conflict with North Korea (45 percent), improving America’s immigration system (47 percent), improving healthcare for Americans (56 percent), working collaboratively with Congress (57 percent), and making race relations better (62 percent). 

GOP House incumbents, including Claudia Tenney, are continually calculating whether their electoral interests are better served aligning or distancing themselves from President Trump. This is the clearest indication to date of the electoral risks they face supporting this president.

Note: "Upstate" in this context includes all counties north of Sullivan, Ulster, and Columbia.

Luke Perry (@PolSciLukePerry) is Chair and Professor of Government at Utica College. 

Read the NY-22 Minute for timely and comprehensive analysis of the campaign.